I was able to track the issue down to a known issue with Configuration Manager 2010
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/troubleshoot/mem/configmgr/adr-updates-download-failure
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/answers/questions/276360/automatic-deployment-rules-adr-error-0x87d20417-do.html
After clearing out the TMP files in C:\Windows\Temp on the site server, the ADR ran successfully.