Hypertext and the next 15 years
In case you missed it, 15 years ago today:
"It was only in 1990, on November 13, that Tim Berners-Lee, the British-born scientist widely credited with inventing the web, sent the first hypertext document through cyberspace"
In the same Timesonline article, Vint Cerf is asked about the next 15 years:
"Very likely it will include 3D presentation capabilities, speech understanding input and perhaps even gestural inputs...There will be billions of devices on the internet and many of them will be used to intermediate in daily information exchanges with our friends, family and colleagues, to say nothing of billions of information appliances on the network."
Hey Vint, aren't we 'there' today? I agree re: 3D and new HCI coolness. However (and I rarely disagree with the uber-Cerfer...), email, blogs, IM, forums power billions of the types of daily exchanges described - today. And don't we already have literally billions of devices connected to the Wonderful, Wonderful, Wondernet?
I think He must have been in a rush when answering the reporter's pesky question...I suppose you can't hang around when you've got another Internet to build...
So, if I may speculate (it's my blog, so I can and I will), I think in the next 15 years (i.e. by 2020 in case you're struggling...) we will have:
10 Hypertextual things for the Next 15 Years
- China as the #1 internet superpower, India #2, Belgium #143
- A tired Darknet (<10 years). Lightnet becomes the new metaphor in the fight against Bollywood
- Ubiquitous, always-on, free ultra-wicked-wideband internet access for 95% of the world's population. The other 5% have opted out, permanently
- >15 trillion 'channels' of loser-generated content. Anyone can search and subscribe to anyone's 25,000+ utterly banal 'mylife' channels
- Evolutionary algorithms powering the majority of successful businesses, e.g the #1 attention service and market-making software will be powered by algorithms that no-one created and that no-one can understand. Algorithms become the new Internet rockstars
- Everybody wants to be an algorithm. A few realise they already are
- A personal IP address and public API is assigned to everyone by their governments. The same for pets
- The realisation that 42 turned out to be a lot closer than we thought
- 308.2 IAs argue over what is Web '22.01'. The debate is nanocast realtime to the only 14 humans that are interested who prosume it on a pay-per-lose channel
- Distraction as the #1 pastime, with 'attention seeking' as a close #2