Ian’s NFL Season Picks
The NFL season opens up tonight with the New England Patriots playing the Oakland Raiders and I figured it was about time for a non-profiler blog post (for any bosses reading, please note that I cooked this up on my own time and not at the officeJ). I’m geeked about the season starting back up, although I’m a little disappointed about Monday Night Football being moved to ESPN; since I don’t have cable I’ll be stuck watching west coast teams all season and I’ll miss some of the big Monday night matchups.
Ever since my last NCAA brackets I’ve been trying to use the “Blink” method of going with my quick gut instinct reaction for picks. If I have to think about a pick for more then a few minutes then I skip the pick and come back to it later. Although it didn’t work so well for the NCAA (I have to stop trusting those Big 12 teams) we’ll see how it fares this NFL season.
Rather then trying to match up wins and losses for all the teams, I’m just going to pick a number for the amount of wins that I expect from that team (I’m guessing that the numbers won’t line up in the end, but that’s not what I’m worrying about here) and the position that they will finish in the conference. Then at the end I’ll list my playoff predictions, and off we go!
1. New England – 11 wins. They have a rough schedule, but should still take the AFC east with no major issues
2. N.Y. Jets – 9 wins. This is a bet on Chad Pennington not being as banged up as he seems and on Curtis Martin’s age not catching up to him.
3. Buffalo – 6 wins. Lots of pundits seem high on the Bills, but J.P. just doesn’t seem like a good quarterback name to me.
4. Miami – 5 wins. Five wins actually seems pretty generous, but I think they will be a little more settled on offense over last year, and their defense is still above average.
1. Cincinnati – 10 wins. I’m betting on a breakout offensive season for Palmer and the two Johnson boys (Chad and Rudi).
2. Baltimore – 9 wins. Their D drags Kyle Boller kicking and screaming into a winning season.
3. Pittsburgh – 8 wins. Big Ben looked lost against New England in the playoff, sorry Steelers fans, but expect to see that look a lot more this season.
4. Cleveland – 3 wins. Ewwwwwwwwww.
1. Indianapolis – 13 wins. I’ll say Manning has a less productive year then last, which makes the Colts rely on James more and ends up making them a better team.
2. Tennessee – 10 wins. Here is one of those “Blink” predictions, contrary to popular belief I think that the Titan’s offense with McNair, Brown, Henry and Calico will mesh well with new offensive coordinator Norm Chow and the Titans will be back in the playoffs.
3. Houston – 7 wins. What ever “it” is that makes a great NFL QB, I don’t think that David Carr has it.
4. Jacksonville – 5 wins. A lot of folks are picking the Jags to win the division, personally, I see Fred Taylor out by week 2 with his usual groin injury and Byron Leftwich being too slow to avoid the rush someone like Dwight Freeney and getting injured.
1. Kansas City – 11 wins. I see them finally making a step up in defense this year to take the toughest division in football.
2. Denver – 10 wins. Another year and another great rushing offense for Denver, no matter who totes the rock.
3. San Diego – 8 wins. I hate to move these guys out of the playoffs, but they are in a very tough division and I still don’t know if Brees is that good.
4. Oakland – 5 wins. Lots of TDs this year for Kerry Collins, but not a lot of wins to go with them.
1. Philadelphia – 10 wins. Another division title, but no repeat of last years playoff success
2. Dallas – 9 wins. Julius Jones is “9 wins” good, plus Drew Bledsoe is not as washed up as you think
3. Washington – 6 wins. Still no answer at QB for the Redskins.
4. N.Y. Giants – 6 wins. Only 6 wins but expect Eli to have a much better year this season.
1. Minnesota – 10 wins. I think spending money on proven CBs is almost always a good call, nice move Vikings.
2. Detroit – 8 wins. Yeah, so I may have added on a win or two for my hometown team, but I do expect 1,500 yards from Kevin Jones and a full season from Carlos Rodgers.
3. Chicago – 7 wins. The Bears D will be a lot better then people expect.
4. Green Bay – 6 wins. Here is where it all starts to come apart at the seams for Brett Farve.
1. Atlanta – 10 wins. The trendy thing to do these days is to knock on Michael Vick’s passing, but say what you want, the guy wins games.
2. Carolina – 10 wins. Carolina is going to be one of those teams that nobody wants to play in the playoffs with a balanced offense and a scary D.
3. Tampa Bay – 6 wins. Should be a rough year for the aging Bucs.
4. New Orleans – 4 wins. Due to issues beyond their control New Orleans is basically going to have to play on the road all year, and that is hard to fight back from.
1. St. Louis – 12 wins. Expect the “Greatest Show on Turf” to get back on track this year behind Steven Jackson.
2. Seattle – 9 wins. Remember that Seattle was only one dropped pass away from advancing in the playoffs last year, and basically all of that team is back this year.
3. Arizona – 7 wins. Another trendy pick that I’m not going to jump on the bandwagon for, seems too much to count on Kurt Warner not getting hurt for a season, although he may put up some big numbers before he goes down.
4. San Francisco – 4 wins. I really think that they are better then 4 wins, but the overall strength of the NFC West will keep them down.
Kansas City and Cincinnati advance over Denver and Tennessee.
Seattle and Carolina advance over Philadelphia and Minnesota
New England and Kansas City advance over Cincinnati and Indianapolis
St. Louis and Carolina advance over Seattle and Atlanta
Kansas City advances over New England
Carolina advances over St. Louis
Carolina over K.C.