Creating a Forecasting Structure and Model (Intermediate Data Mining Tutorial)

Next, you will use the Data Mining Wizard to create a new mining structure and mining model based on the data source view that you just created. In this task you will specify that the mining model should use the Microsoft Time Series algorithm.

To create a forecasting mining structure

  1. In Solution Explorer in Business Intelligence Development Studio, right-click Mining Structures and select New Mining Structure.

  2. On the Welcome to the Data Mining Wizard page, click Next.

  3. On the Select the Definition Method page, verify that From existing relational database or data warehouse is selected, and then click Next.

  4. On the Create the Data Mining Structure page, under Which data mining technique do you want to use?, select Microsoft Time Series, and then click Next.

  5. On the Select Data Source View page, under Available data source views, select SalesByRegion.

  6. Click Next.

  7. On the Specify Table Types page, ensure that the check box in the Case column for the vTimeSeries table is selected, and then click Next.

  8. On the Specify the Training Data page, select the check boxes in the Key column for the ModelRegion and ReportingDate columns.

    ReportingDate should be selected by default, because you specified this column as the logical primary key when you created the data source view. By adding ModelRegion as a second key, you are telling the algorithm to create a separate time series for each combination of model and region listed in this field.

  9. Select the check boxes in the Input and Predictable columns for the Quantity, column, and then click Next.

    By selecting Predictable, you indicate that you want to create forecasts on the data in this column. However, because you want to base the forecasts on past data, you must also add the column as an input.

  10. On the page Specify Columns' Content and Data Type, review the selections.

    The ModelRegion column is designated as a Key column and the ReportingDate column is automatically designated as a Key Time column. You can have only one of each type of key.

  11. Click Next.

  12. On the Completing the Wizard page, for Mining structure name, type Forecasting.


    The option to enable drillthrough is not available for time series models.

  13. In Mining model name, type Forecasting, and then click Finish.

    Data Mining Designer opens to display the Forecasting mining structure that you just created.