Vista: The Last Major Version of Windows
That's one of Gartner's headline grabbing statements in its end of year predictions. It's a pretty bold statement to make - do they know something I don't?
The BBC article also reports Gartner's thoughts on blogging:
The blogging phenomenon is set to peak in 2007, according to technology predictions by analysts Gartner.
The analysts said that during the middle of next year the number of blogs will level out at about 100 million.
The reality is that end of year predictions are a cheap way to get publicity, and an easy way for journalists to meet their story quota. No hard facts required. The more provocative the prediction the better.
My view on blogging is that it is only just getting started. Today it is still primarily the preserve of the Net Generation and people in the IT business. Most of my enterprise customers are only just starting to think about piloting blogging and other Web 2.0-style collaboration technologies inside their enterprise. Most of the world is still not online. We all have things we are passionate about. We all like to share our opinions on those things. We like to have conversations about them. It's human nature. My prediction is that blogging will continue to grow fast in 2007, but not quite at the same rate as this year as the media hype wears off. Not nearly as exciting as Gartner huh?
Now, back to that Vista prediction. These are interesting times for Microsoft. I count myself lucky to be at the centre of an industry at a time of unprecedented innovation, when the things we are doing are radically changing the way that people work, socialise and communicate. What's in store for Windows I can't say, but if there is one place to get a view on the Microsoft view of the future it's at the 2007 Professional Developers Conference. With Bill taking more of a back seat these days this will be the first big chance for Ray Ozzie to shine and set out a big vision for where Microsoft is headed over the next 3 years. You can subscribe to the RSS feed for PDC 2007 here.